WE CAN no longer trust Ballarat's waning COVID-19 case numbers as a true gauge of the virus, a leading epidemiologist says in highlighting confirmed major infection under-reporting.
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Deakin University epidemiology lead Catherine Bennett pointed to results from a new blood antibody study released this week, showing almost one-quarter of all Victorians had been infected by the virus by the end of February. Young adults had the highest rates of infection.
Professor Bennett said this suggested it was highly likely more than half the population had experienced COVID-19 by now but blood results confirmed "big under-reporting" to state health authorities.
This comes as Ballarat recorded 101 new active COVID-19 infections on Monday with 760 known cases in the community. Known active cases have dropped to levels of about one-third of people living with the virus in Ballarat exactly one month ago at a peak of 2214 infections.
"What we're living with is what the virus looks like now but we can still end up with people in hospital. What we're living with now is about how we protect people who are vulnerable or who might not get diagnosed soon enough for anti-viral treatment," Professor Bennett said.
"Australia still has the highest COVID-19 death rate per capita. That's something to think about.
"While a mild infection might not affect you, you need to protect others. For example, public transport is just not fair if you can't get on there without everybody wearing masks - as they are supposed to do.
"...We need to take care as we're moving about in winter. Flu is coming to its peak time of July-August. People need vaccinations for both. We're in for the long haul this winter."
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Emerging new strains of COVID-19's Omicron variant are presenting as stickier, meaning they were more likely to lodge in people's lungs.
Professor Bennett said reinfections with new variants were possible and booster vaccines continued to boost immunity. She said there was also a strong chance COVID-19 hospitalisations could rise while active cases seemed to be on the decline - a trend that occurred in December.
"We need to be careful and mindful [about spread] without being anxious and stressed," Professor Bennett said. "...If a barrier of a mask reduces the infecting dose a bit, it might technically make it less likelt to translate into long-COVID and other things.
"Omicron might be less likely to cause problems like Delta, but when you have three times as much of it circulating, it's still a big problem."
Omicron might be less likely to cause problems like Delta, but when you have three times as much of it circulating, it's still a big problem.
- Professor Catherine Bennett, Deakin University epidemiologist
The national antibody study from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance and the Kirby Institute was conducted in late February to early March, about six weeks after the peak of the Omicron wave in New South Wales, the ACT, Queensland and Victoria.
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