'Halting the homicide timeline': how family violence escalates to murder

"It came out of nowhere."

"He seemed like such a nice bloke."

But these murders never come from nowhere, Jess Cadwallader says, many people just don't know how to read the signs.

Dr Cadwallader has spent a career working in violence prevention, including the past five years as principal strategic advisor for Victoria's Central Highlands Integrated Family Violence Committee.

She says every death leaves behind shattered family and friends who sensed something wasn't right and a victim who had been living in fear.

"The evidence tells us that when a victim fears for her life, she's almost always right." Dr Cadwallader says.

Family violence services are there to protect and support victim-survivors, but they can't intervene if they don't know there's a problem.

Dr Cadwallader says the community is the front line in the fight.

"We all need to know how to help our families, friends and community identify and respond to the early signs," she says.

The evidence suggests nine red flags to look for. Has the person's partner or ex-partner:

Dr Cadwallader says while this isn't an exhaustive list, it covers a pattern of behaviour that emerges time after time.

People often miss red flags, but they also dismiss them because perpetrators of family violence are so good at explaining them away.

"It's important to understand perpetrators groom their victims and their community," Dr Cadwallader says.

Grooming is behaviour that establishes an emotional connection with the perpetrator while also moving the goal posts of what is acceptable.

This might include subtle sexist or misogynistic comments, testing the boundaries and diminishing the seriousness of obvious red flags.

"This is where we as a community can say 'no'," Dr Cadwallader says.

She says almost all relationships that become violent don't start out that way. Often they begin with an excessive and apparently romantic phase called "love bombing".

This can involve continual or over-the-top gift giving and praise of the new partner. But it also usually has a possessive edge, with the sense of the attention or intimacy being "too much, too soon".

Victims sometimes twig that something's not right, but friends and family are crucial, Dr Cadwallader says.

"If someone asks whether someone's behaviour is OK, be wary of the first reaction we almost all have, which is to come up with an explanation that makes it innocent," she says.

"They are looking to understand their sense that something is off. They need your support to take that seriously.

"We teach women to trust a man they barely know over their own instincts, and we need to support them to trust their gut reactions."

When a victim decides a relationship is toxic or dangerous, leaving is almost always the most dangerous point.

This is when they need the most support, Dr Cadwallader says. It is the crucial step in stopping the gradual escalation she calls the "family violence homicide timeline":

"The only instance where a stage in the model was not followed was when men did not meet stage one - but this was normally because they had not previously had a relationship," Dr Cadwallader says.

The more familiar the community is with behaviour patterns like coercive control, the more likely we are to halt the homicide timeline.

"If we all know these patterns, we can help victims identify that they're experiencing family violence much earlier, and ensure that people around them believe them," Dr Cadwallader says.

But as much as the victim-survivor should be the number one priority, the community can also support the perpetrator to recognise what they are doing and seek help to stop.

"People who use violence may be deeply ashamed of this fact, particularly when their community finds out," Dr Cadwallader says.

"Victim survivors often wind up navigating this shame while also managing risk - a very difficult and unfair position to be in.

"We as community members can help by supporting people who use violence to actively address their violence and take accountability for it."

Dr Cadwallader says while we rightly expect the government to step up and provide the services and funding to support victim-survivors and help educate the community, that community needs to play an active role in solving the problem.

"We want to believe that only monsters commit family violence. But the truth is, they're people in our community, right now," she says.

"This violence is preventable. There are signs.

"We need as a community to have the courage to step up, step in and speak out.

"Because even if we are wrong, that embarrassment is better than grieving another woman murdered."

If you or someone you know is at risk, ACM has created directories showing the various services available: